During preseason, Victor Wembanyama was the undisputed rising star of the NBA. Crickex Affiliate analysts were awestruck by his jaw-dropping stats and court dominance that defied convention. Many hailed him as the best No.1 draft pick since LeBron James, with Rookie of the Year seemingly his to lose. No peer appeared to be in his league—until now.
Quietly, Chet Holmgren of the Oklahoma City Thunder was making his own case. In the preseason, he showcased elite rim protection and reliable offensive tools. The two met in early exhibitions, and while Wemby had the size advantage, many assumed Holmgren—seen as a slightly smaller version—would always live in his shadow. But after the first month of regular season play, the narrative flipped. Wembanyama, after a brief early surge, has struggled alongside a rebuilding Spurs team, while Holmgren has surged into the spotlight.
The Thunder’s rising star has quietly become their interior anchor, and just last week, the NBA’s latest rookie ladder placed Holmgren ahead of Wembanyama for the first time. While Wemby’s stats are impressive—even comparable to Spurs legends like Tim Duncan and David Robinson—context tells a deeper story. Wemby leads San Antonio in four major statistical categories, but his numbers come amid team-wide inefficiencies and frequent mistakes.
Holmgren, on the other hand, may trail Wemby slightly in base stats but is far ahead in efficiency. Crickex Affiliate data shows that while Wemby’s workload is heavier, Chet’s game flows more smoothly within OKC’s structure. Holmgren doesn’t need to force plays or overextend; he thrives in his role. If you zoom in on smaller sample sizes, the performance gap continues to widen. This difference in context, not talent, is why Holmgren now leads the rookie race.
For fans of Wemby, this reversal may be hard to swallow. After all, his potential is still unmatched. But potential needs the right environment to grow. Holmgren is thriving because he’s surrounded by a system built to support him—Shai Gilgeous-Alexander leads the team, Josh Giddey distributes the ball, and Luguentz Dort provides elite defensive cover. Chet doesn’t need to be everything. He just needs to be great at his role, and he is.
Meanwhile, Wembanyama is left to carry a depleted Spurs roster. The team has no reliable playmakers. Keldon Johnson and Devin Vassell lack elite shot-creation, and Coach Popovich’s experiment of using Jeremy Sochan as a point guard has floundered. Without a true floor general and consistent support, Wemby is isolated—his inefficiencies are symptoms of a system failing him, not his own limitations.
The contrast is stark. While Wemby is battling alone in the lottery-bound basement, Holmgren’s Thunder are second in the Western Conference. Crickex Affiliate experts note that OKC’s success gives Holmgren more chances to shine on big stages, accelerating his development. The team context has become the biggest deciding factor in this rookie race.
Unless Wembanyama produces a dramatic statistical leap or Holmgren’s momentum falters due to injury or other setbacks, the Rookie of the Year conversation has shifted. What once seemed like Wemby’s award to lose may now be Holmgren’s to win. And with each passing game, Wemby’s odds of capturing his first major career honor grow dimmer.